OBAMA'S SECRETARY OF STATE - October 6, 2008

It is not that the Obama team lacks foreign policy depth. To the contrary, it's

there even if recognition has been bestowed upon only a few. Senator Joe Biden was really positioning himself for the next Secretary of State until he was deemed more valuable as the Vice President nominee in an Obama campaign under Republican assault for lack of national security credentials. Amb. Richard Holbrooke, the self appointed foreign policy spokesperson for the Democratic Party for much of the last 8 years, is not a particularly favored choice within the Obama inner circle, especially if looking forward to a confirmation process before the US Senate that could open a closet with skeletons for uncomfortable scrutiny. Would an Obama Presidency choose to align itself closely with the Clinton foreign policy legacy or opt for a more fresh start, and face? (Will take a look at Secretary of State options for McCain Presidency in follow-up article).

EXPERIENCE OR "CHANGE"?

Some may see this as a choice between experience versus the new, change. However, much of Obama's inner circle has a background in foreign policy, including some from the Clinton Administration, even if many have not been extensively accorded public inspection or presence. The limelight has been for so much of the last 8 years absorbed by Amb. Holbrooke that even highly experienced hands such as Tony Lake, Madelline Albright, Greg Craig and Susan Rice appeared in the public dim by comparison.

THE BIDEN FACTOR

While Senator Joe Biden no longer is a "candidate" for Secretary of State, his effect on the choice may be greater than previous VP choices. His extended background as Chair of the Senate Foreign Policy Committee, long standing friend of Israel, critic in Southeast Asia and strong advocate of Central and Eastern Europe inclusion into EU and NATO made him a favored option even among  some "Neo-Cons" as well as providing the Obama team with the label of experienced hand at the helm.

Having been brought in by candidate Obama to shore-up foreign policy credentials, Biden may look to stake out this area of authority within any Obama Presidency perhaps in the mold of more recent assertive VPs as Dick Chaney. He undoubtedly will have influence upon the choice. Further, Biden may seek to work with a Secretary of State who will at least give some deference to a former Senator already known for his confidence and accustomed to his assertiveness. This could make more unlikely the choice of another strong personality or prominent name. Nonetheless, there are many experienced team players from the Clinton and even Carter Presidencies who are at least potential candidates in an Obama team.

THE FIRST STRING, FROM PREVIOUS DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS

Tony Lake was National Security Adviser for Bill Clinton during the first term, but he was a Barack Obama adviser and backer from the outset. He could demand a position on basis of experience and loyalty. The major question is would Tony want to leave academia to return to the grind of serving at the top of another foreign policy team: "Been there, done that!"

  Madeline Albright faces a similar personal choice as Tony Lake, (and she also has now

  a profitable consulting venture). The two have also had a long standing, respectful

  relationship. Although Madelline Albright was originally a Hillary backer, she was quickly

  absorbed into Obama's inner foreign policy circle. As a woman and one who has already

  held the job, she has the advantage of being the woman, the experience and the perceived

  "change" in a new Obama team.

Zbig Brzezinski, Jimmy Cater's National Security Adviser, is still both active in foreign policy debates and vital. His son Mark has also been a part of Obama's team. Some of Zbig's Middle East views, especially those advocated with respect to Israel, would make him a more difficult choice, even if a different one. Perhaps Zbig might be tempted to make another comeback to the top after being away for so long, but it is doubtful that he desires the grind or the controversy that his choice would raise.

Several former members of Congress are also possibilities including Sam Nunn, Lee Hamilton, David Boren and Tim Roemer. The list could also include some current members of the Senate or House, but the value of such may be perceived as greater to the Democratic Party to stay in the Congress.

THE RISING STARS

  Greg Craig, prominent Washington attorney, has the credentials, trust factor and

  experience to claim a top, the top post. He was a Clinton Administration official who also

  was on the Obama campaign team from outset. He is also a friend of Bono, and not just a

  behind the scenes player. Greg would probably lead any search team for Secretary of State

  on behalf of Obama, and could find himself being advanced for the job, like a previous first

  term Clinton player and fellow lawyer, Warren Christopher. It is rumored though that he is

  most likely to be fitted into the slot of National Security Adviser, a post that would give him

  as great influence and even greater access within an Obama White House.

Susan Rice perhaps is not as well known as some others who have more actively promoted their foreign policy renown and State Department experience. Nonetheless, she has comparable or superior foreign policy credentials, with a focus on Africa, an area demanding still greater attention. Susan is well respected within inner circles and apparently does not have any skeletons waiting to escape the closet.

  Jamie Rubin was Madelline Albright's closest assistant when she

  served both as Secretary of State and UN Ambassador. However, I already knew him

  when he was a young assistant under Biden and the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

  He is media savvy and has managed to stay close to the Democratic Party mainstream

  even as his personal life and marriage to Christian Amanpour require much out of

  Washington time.

Jim Steinberg is a relatively young man, but I met him when he was Bill Clinton's Deputy National Security Adviser. He has been through the grind of policy formulation through several different White House, Pentagon and State Department teams and crisis.

Jim O'Brien, another Albright protégé, is less media visible, but remains

in high regard for his legal skills and team player attitude. He remains a part of the Albright team. Perhaps some may overlook him because he does not exhibit ambition, but he is a man with extended experience from the Dayton talks to more current private ventures.     

WHAT HAPPENED TO LATIN AMERICA?

Bill Richardson is currently Governor of New Mexico. Bill's experience goes back to as a member of the US Congress, with high profile foreign missions, and as the US Ambassador to the

United Nations, (when we were colleagues). Bill has several advantages including his Hispanic background important for a President Obama probably already cognizant of

his need to shore up that segment of the vote in a reelection bid in 2012. Bill has the smarts, but one might ask is his serious regarding the commitment to foreign policy. After all, Bill quit as UN Ambassador after a stint of only months to become Energy Secretary under President Clinton. Perhaps he just wanted to be in the center of it all

in Washington, and his background would be well suited to a Latin America increasingly needing more attention.

ANOTHER GENERAL LEADING THE STATE DEPARTMENT?

  General Wes Clark has foreign policy background from experiences as member

  of the negotiating team in Dayton on Bosnia & Herzegovina, to US Commander for

  the Southern Hemisphere, to NATO military chief during the Kosovo war. Wes

  could also be a lead candidate for the top Pentagon post, although some of his

  military colleagues considered him too brainy and aloof. (The US also, unlike some

  other states, has traditionally avoided a military mean leading even as civilian the

  Department of Defense feeling it to be inconsistent with civilian charge of the armed forces). Wes is smart and has the temperament for Secretary of State. (From Dayton to Kosovo, we interacted frequently, and I found him more diplomat than some State Department officials). Wes was though an active Hillary supporter, and Obama has other top military advisers who may be favored over Wes.

COMING OFF THE BENCH

The Obama team is rich with the potential of relatively youthful supporters who deserve high posts in the next Obama Administration, but could rise to the top of State Department or National Security team in a potential second term. The list includes Ben Rhodes, Scott Gration, Richard Danzig, Daniel Shapiro, Robert Maley, Amb. David Sheffer, and Mark Brzezinski. The loyalty factor plays well for all, and each could be buttressed in pursuit of the highest post by "in-house" experience. Some are likely to end up within the State Department in the first term while other are more suited as part of the National Security Advisory team.

Amb. David Scheffer does have extended experience within State. As former Ambassador on war crimes and to the ICC, (International Criminal Court), his role could be critical as the US will have to develop a process at the highest level to make consistent its rhetoric in favor of the rule of law with its recent efforts to undercut the ICC.

Dennis McDonough is more experienced as well, and coordinates much of the current policy making. He is a most viable aspirant for a high post within the National Security team, including the post of Deputy National Security Adviser or even the lead, in the first term.

Samantha Power deserves special mention for diverse reasons. She has raised controversy with her statements on Hillary and policy. However, she

has also been a trusted Obama adviser expressing more publicly what he can not. She does not have a background within State, but has experience from Bosnia to Darfur to Harvard. She does have Democratic Party pedigree

though: I met her when she was still the intern for Amb. Mort Abramowitz, a guide or mentor for many current foreign policy players from his stints at

State, Carnegie and ICG, (International Crisis Group). Samantha may be in a good position to mend the US image on human rights to multilateralism. She could follow Madelline's footsteps as UN Ambassador, (a Cabinet level post most likely under Obama), and then second term Secretary of State.

THE POTENTIAL SURPRISE

With a campaign focused on change and bi partisanship Obama may have a hard time

fulfilling such rhetoric in the context of the higher levels of his Administration. Perhaps the amicable Colin Powell could be a Republican who is tagged for a higher post, and his repudiation of George W policies may be enough to overcome the association with the recent past. Professor Paul Williams is a libertarian Republican, (co-founded the Public International Law & Policy Group), provides legal, constitutional advice to an array of states

 from Bosnia to Nepal as well as having served in the State

 Department. His broad internationalist background reflects a

 projection of American constitutional values with bipartisan utility

 and contacts. Nancy Soderberg has also had a diverse background, including

 stints as Assistant National Security Adviser and UN Ambassador (number 2 to

 Holbrooke) under Clinton and VP at the ICG. She is well versed on socio economic

 and foreign policy issues and serves as foreign policy advisor to NY Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

The probabilities are only slightly better than 50% that the names elicited in this article include the next US Secretary of State in an Obama Administration. Surprises are possible and other potential candidates include unfamiliar and well-known names. Some still insist that Richard Holbrooke is a real possibility. Whatever objectively Holbrooke's talents may be, he is a risk in terms of the political process, (skeletons come out in confirmation process), and style, (Gen. Wes Clark described him to me as behaving as the President in the Clinton White House principals' meeting, rather than the other way around).  

If a President Obama would seek a heavy duty name with personality, then why not Secretary of State Hillary Clinton? Probably not for the same reasons that Obama did not select her as his VP candidate!

Al Gore is certainly a recognizable name and would be a popular choice among many. Perhaps a "Green" Secretary of State could propel to the forefront a shared global agenda regarding the environment where the US has been disappointing most of its Euro-Atlantic allies. This certainly would not be a bad basis to reconstruct global cooperation and the utility of multilateralism. Gore has the experience in Foreign Policy both as former Senator and Vice President, and leaves impression as team player.

TEAM PLAYER

Focusing speculation on specific better known names risks overlooking qualifications and qualities sought by a President Obama and a VP Biden. The top of the ticket already has both renown and strong personality. Such a lineup is likely to seek a team player rather than solo play maker. And, if that is possible, they will look to further political agenda through diversity, inclusion and by projecting into constituencies for 2012. 

Muhamed Sacirbey

--------------------

Mr. Muhamed Sacirbey holds B.A. degree in history and J. D. degree from Tulane University in New Orleans. He also holds M.B.A. degree from Columbia University. Prior to becoming Bosnia’s Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United Nations, he practiced as an attorney in New York City and worked for several years as an investment banker. He presently writes his book “A Convenient Genocide, in a fishbowl ” and is a commentator on human rights and political issues.

--------------------