AN ORTHODOX JEWISH OR MUSLIM SECRETARY OF STATE FOR PRESIDENT JOHN McCAIN? - October 25, 2008

The debate regarding candidate John McCain's foreign policy agenda has focused on whether he will follow the neo-conservative, "neo-con" ideology. The search

for evidence regarding John McCain's intentions may produce many clues, but in fact it all may be non-indicative of whom President John McCain would nominate for his Secretary of State, and why. (This is second in series of articles on the next US Secretary of State: read Obama's Secretary of State – we received a couple of communications from more than a couple of sources that we should include Sen. John Kerry as a potential Obama Secretary of State. Some potential nominees are no longer available as circumstances or alliances have also changed, Colin Powell endorsement of Obama, since we began writing this article during the summer).

Senator John McCain has shunned labels that would solidly identify him with any particular foreign policy philosophy. He is very much a person and politician of views independently formulated from ideological guidelines. McCain will select his Secretary of State not so much on ideological criteria as much as the political and pragmatic considerations and the notion of loyalty to his Administration.

THE IRELAND STOPOVER FACTOR!

Contrary to the Senator Joseph Biden factor within the Obama campaign, Sarah Palin leaves a visible hole in foreign policy credentials. Governor Palin has counted a refueling stop-over in Shannon, Ireland as a foreign visit. At least, unlike the then hung-over Russian President Boris Yeltsin, Governor Palin seems to have remembered the stop-over in Ireland. (It must be, I think, a sign of progress that the greatest debate on Ireland in the US presidential campaign is with respect to flight stopovers and duty free shopping rather than the IRA and divisiveness in Northern Ireland. Take it from someone who is involved in the tumult of Bosnian/Herzegovinian political debate, boring can be beautiful, well nice). Getting back to the point, the Sarah Palin factor dictates that McCain's Secretary of State is both experienced and recognized for expertise in foreign policy and diplomacy.

DISTANCING FROM THE "W" ADMINISTRATION

The objective failures of the W Administration in foreign policy, particularly employing multilateralism in pursuit of the US global agenda, will encourage McCain to select a Secretary of State sufficiently distanced from the current Republican team in power. Normally, an incoming Republican Administration might be inclined to employ the experience of a previous Republican Administration, (as in the case of James Baker in the transition from the Reagan to the Herbert Busch Administrations or even Kissinger from Nixon to Ford Administrations).

The McCain team will be anxious to set a new tone regardless of how much or little President John McCain would deviate from George W. Bush foreign policy. This narrows down the field; however we should not forget that John McCain has in his career in the Senate been more effective in working in a bipartisan context than perhaps indicated through this polarizing election.

ESTABLISHED CREDENTIALS

Senator Joseph Lieberman has an established history of leadership

in foreign policy issues, from Bosnia to Iraq. It would be difficult to dispute Lieberman’s credentials as he was the Democratic Party nominee for VP only 8 years earlier, even if his visible policy positions could subject him

to criticism. And, as an “Independent” having lost the primary and endorsement of his party, (he still in theory aligns himself with Democrats

in U.S. Senate for Committee leadership and posts), Lieberman is probably not anxious to go through another Senate campaign. In a McCain team, Lieberman can be projected as a bipartisan choice while remaining in the Senate, he would become increasingly isolated.   

  Bob Dole, the former Republican Senate leader and 1996 Presidential

  candidate is well respected on both sides of the aisle. Dole, like Lieberman

  and Biden, has established foreign policy credentials through the Senate

  Foreign Relations Committee. (The “Lieberman/Dole bill” proposed lifting

  the arms embargo on Bosnia & Herzegovina so that it could defend itself).

  Dole was also a leader in the process in the 1990’s of encouraging inclusion of

  the “new democracies” of Europe into NATO and the EU. The real

  consideration, besides perhaps his age, would be whether Dole would want to

  make a return to politics.

General Colin Powell was already W's Secretary of State. However, he probably has done a lot to distance himself from the failed policies of that Administration. McCain also is partial toward leaders with military backgrounds. (When we originally started researching for this article this summer, Powell still appeared as supportive of the Republican nominee). Perhaps the biggest question for McCain regarding Powell was whether the General has distanced himself so far from W as to make himself too far from candidate John McCain as well. That actually appears to be the case in reverse though as Powell has now endorsed Obama, and could potentially be set to assume a post in a Democratic Administration.

Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad has served in this Administration as US Ambassador to Afghanistan, Iraq and as Permanent Representative

to the United Nations. He has been credited with performing admirably under difficult circumstances. In the United Nations, he has managed to restore some lost confidence in the US. His Muslim background perhaps was an asset. Regardless, in the arena of multilateralism he only added to the image of a statesman and diplomat able to defend US interests even among adversaries. Perhaps surprisingly to some, Khalilzad comes from neo-con credentials I met him through Richard Perle, when Zalmay’s credits included aiding the Afghan “freedom fighters” or “Mudzahedeen” against the Soviet Union in the 1980’s.

  Richard Perle carries the banner of the “neo-cons,” and as such has been

  assigned responsibility, right or wrong, good or bad, for recent US policy in

  Iraq. However, Richard has a much longer background of involvement in

  U.S. foreign affairs. Intelligent, loyal and broad minded, Richard is feared by

  his political adversaries and respected both for his intellect and loyalty. He

  was an informal adviser to the Bosnian delegation during Dayton and and

  active advocate of integration of the new democracies into NATO and EU.

  Richard is widely credited, as the “Prince of Darkness,” in having brought the Soviet Union to its knees during the Reagan Administration. While Richard is viewed as contentious in some circles, the potential rise of a new Russian imperialism could prompt a return to high office within a McCain Administration. Perle is also a Democrat by political party affiliation.

McCain has an experienced and capable pool to choose from his core team. Also, in this selection he could accomplish the perception of bipartisanship as well as diversity.

COMING OFF THE BENCH

Candidate John McCain’s foreign advisory circle does not include all that many household names. There is even significant debate regarding the ideological orientation of these advisers: neo-con or not. Nonetheless, many of these more trusted aides stand experienced and ready to assume positions of authority within a McCain White House and State Department. Richard Williamson is a former State Department official.

William Kristol is more closely associated with the Project for a New American Century, (presumably a neo-con leaning organization formed over a decade ago to promote the agenda).  Robert Kagan is another top voice of presumably neo-con views within the McCain team. Randy Scheunemann is a former Congressional aide to Senator Robert

Dole.

THE PENTAGON AND SECURITY PARTIALITY

John McCain has unapologetically favored the view from the Pentagon in formulating his foreign policy perspective. This should not surprise for a man who entered political life as a national military hero and whose family background includes a father and grandfather who achieved the highest ranks in the US Navy.

  Perhaps this will translate to a Presidency that also places relatively higher

  priority in the selection and appointment of Defense Department head. Or, it may

  encourage McCain to find common foreign policy language with officials who have

  served in Pentagon and/or National Security posts. James Woolsey, former

  CIA Chief, and Ambassador John Negraponte, current intelligence chief are

  considered top candidates for high posts, perhaps highest within State or as

  National Security chief in the White House.

"LEAGUE OF DEMOCRACIES"

Candidate McCain has promoted the notion of “democracies” acting together to confront various concerns, from Iranian nuclear proliferation to responding to Russian ambitions. However such “League of Democracies” is defined, whether as the Euro-Atlantic alliance or to include a broader global partnership of progressive states, the United States is not perceived as a proficient leader. In large part due to the perceived unilateralist methodology and substance of the W Administration, the US lacks multilateralist credentials. For example, it is observably inconsistent to be promoting the rule of law in the Caucuses or Iran if the United States undercuts the International Criminal Court.

Professor Paul Williams, Director of the International Law & Policy Group, (and also mentioned as a potential factor within an Obama Administration), and Professor Ruth Wedgwood of Johns Hopkins

and U.S. Representative on the UN Human Rights Council are examples of Republican oriented personalities who do have credentials and credibility

to project US foreign policy in a global leadership position among democracies. The “League of Democracies” may be a worthy vision of a candidate who wants to reassert U.S. global leadership; however it will be seen as a furtherance of a unilateralist agenda unless executed by US high officials who have a background and credibility within international multilateral circles, from legality to human rights.

The major test for a McCain Presidency in foreign policy will be to balance a comfort for and inclination toward advisers who have a national security and military background with those who can convincingly deal with other democracies in various multilateral forums, from NATO to the United Nations. Otherwise, fairly or not, in foreign capitals a McCain Presidency would be judged as more of the same in foreign policy both in substance and style.          

Muhamed Sacirbey

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Mr. Muhamed Sacirbey holds B.A. degree in history and J. D. degree from Tulane University in New Orleans. He also holds M.B.A. degree from Columbia University. Prior to becoming Bosnia’s Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United Nations, he practiced as an attorney in New York City and worked for several years as an investment banker. He presently writes his book “A Convenient Genocide, in a fishbowl ” and is a commentator on human rights and political issues.

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