LITTLE SARKOZY THAT COULDN’T – December 3, 2008

Speaking on May 28th in Polish Sejm, Nicolas Sarkozy said that Poland has been the only country in Europe against which France never waged a war. Ironically, only a few months later, Sarkozy found himself in a fierce conflict not only with Poland’s top political establishment, but also became a target of humiliating criticism from many respected Central European intellectuals and leaders like Vaclav Havel.

All of that is coming at the end of the French EU Presidency, which is likely to leave Europe politically more divided than it was on July 1st, when France assumed Union’s leadership.

THE EUROPEAN DIVIDE

The election of Barack Obama as America’s new President has been applauded domestically and internationally. Nonetheless, several European leaders reacted to his election in some unexpected way.

Russian President Dimitry Medvedev publicly stated that his country would deploy Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region as an immediate response to location of the U.S. antimissile system in Poland and the Czech Republic. Additionally, Russia rejected Bush Administration’s proposal to renegotiate the antimissile shield idea in bilateral talks, explaining that they would prefer to talk to the President Elect.

Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi backed Russian objectives almost instantly and called the antimissile shield in Central Europe an unnecessary project dangerous for European security. Interestingly, Silvio Berlusconi was a pledged U.S.’s supporter and in the past backed more controversial America’s endeavors, like for example war in Iraq.

Finally, France’s Nicolas Sarkozy acting as the chief of the EU Presidency teamed up with President Medvedev and similarly requested that the antimissile shield concept be terminated. Sarkozy’s lack of consultation with the Central European governments insinuated that Poland and the Czech Republic should be bypassed in making this decision.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk responded quickly that it was a domestic issue of a sovereign Polish state whether to agree to locate the U.S. antimissile system on its territory. The issue could not be decided by the Union, although perhaps the entire Europe would be affected by Poland’s decision.

Vaclav Havel, the former President of the Czech Republic, went even one step further and in an interview for Corriere Della Sera labeled the French President a person, who speaks faster than thinks. Havel compared Sarkozy, and those who are against the antimissile shield, to Edouard Daladier and the infamous Munich Agreement of 1938, which traded Czechoslovakia to Nazi Germany.

Berlusconi’s and Sarkozy’s sudden rapprochement with Russia divided Europe into two opposite blocs of proponents and opponents of the U.S. “star wars” project.

The division moved into other areas as well.

DIPLOMATIC STRUGGLES

On November 11th, Polish President Lech Kaczynski was organizing a grand Celebration of the 90th Anniversary of Poland’s Independence. While Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel attended the event, Nicolas Sarkozy did not. There were at least two untold reasons for his absence, besides the official ones.

Firstly, Lech Kaczynski has been grossly unpopular in Western Europe, therefore publicly associating with him would not make much sense for a celebrity-style politician like Sarkozy. More importantly though, Lech Kaczynski has been openly disliked by Russian political establishment for the role he played in the Georgian crisis, while the French President was hosting the EU-Russia Summit on November 14th. It was, therefore, safer for him not to come as it could annoy the Russian counterpart.

As a result, Sarkozy rejected Kaczynski’s invitation and instead decided to come to Poland on December 6th to meet with Lech Walesa, and only as a detour with President Kaczynski to discuss the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.

This time Kaczynski responded that he would not meet with Sarkozy in December because he was going to Japan with an official visit. The French diplomats reportedly pressed Kaczynski to reconsider, but he would not change his mind. Eventually, Sarkozy decided to come to Poland anyway and meet with Walesa and Dalailama.

His decision was quickly dismissed by China which postponed EU-China Summit in protest.  

UNDERMINING PRO-RUSSIAN LOBBY

Undoubtedly, Berlusconi’s and Sarkozy’s romance with Russia, just after Obama’s election, posed a serious challenge for Central European countries, not only in the subject of location of the U.S. antimissile shield, but also in the field of EU’s policy toward the Georgian crisis.

The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried said on October 20th, that Russia has failed to meet its obligations under the cease-fire agreement and has not withdrawn to positions before the outbreak of hostilities. Nevertheless, during the EU-Russia Summit on November 14th, the French Presidency contradicted those statements and expressed satisfaction with Russia’s implementation of the agreement.

A real discomfort must have been felt after that in many Central European countries, including Poland and the Baltic States, because the response came, once again, from Lech Kaczynski.

On November 24th, Kaczynski accompanied by Georgia’s President Saakashvili approached South Ossetian border and was reportedly shot at with a machine gun. Although it was an obvious provocation, it showed that Russia has not implemented the peace agreement, nor it withdrew its soldiers from the territory.

The information was corroborated the next day by U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, Matthew Bryza, who confirmed that Russia has not met its obligations under the ceasefire agreement and indeed has not withdrawn its troops.  

CONCLUSIONS

There are at least three important conclusions from the above described developments.

The first one is for Barack Obama, who should not take Europe for granted. The sudden support given to Russia by Sarkozy and Berlusconi after the November 4th election shows that Obama’s win may deepen the transatlantic divide rather than shrink it. Leaders like Sarkozy and Berlusconi now feel free to defy America’s strategic interests in Europe because they do not fear any political retaliation, which would be likely to follow from a hypothetical Republican administration.

When America was decisively pursuing the idea of the antimissile shield, both France and Italy were backing the United States, although they might have done so unwillingly and moderately. However, after Obama’s win and his known doubts about the system, France and Italy have been trying to realign themselves with Russia as they believe that Russia could become a decisive force on the continent. If Obama terminates the project, the most influential power in Europe will be Russia, not the United States.

The conclusion for Nicolas Sarkozy is that he should not underestimate the importance of Central European countries. In the aftermath of his actions, his political image suffered considerably, perhaps not even in Central Europe and Georgia alone, but across the Atlantic as well. He became a target of fierce and humiliating criticism by many Eastern European politicians, including extremely respected intellectuals like Vaclav Havel.

The conclusion for Poland is that it should perhaps take a more favorable look at present-day Germany and work on opportunities enhancing bilateral cooperation. Angela Merkel’s Administration, although uncomfortable with the idea of the antimissile shield, spoke primarily against Russia’s decision to locate the Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region, therefore showed maturity and sensitiveness about the problem. Merkel also undertook endeavors to diminish Germany’s dependence on Russian gas supplies and visited Algeria earlier this year to discuss energy exports. Germany became receptive, if not to all than at least to some of Poland’s arguments. Presently, it makes more sense for Poland to seek closer political cooperation with Germany rather than with France and Italy, which are apparently prone to overnight flip-flopping, especially after November 4th.

Sebastian Aulich