BiH TO ENTER UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL? 

- December 18, 2008

Bosnia & Herzegovina, (BiH), stands prepared to win election to a 2 year term

as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council. Poland, BiH's only announced competition for the election next year, has sent note to other UN member states that it is withdrawing its candidacy. Poland probably came to the conclusion that it could not beat BiH, and quietly indicated that it would withdraw in favor of and support BiH. (Poland sought BiH's support for a new candidacy for a 2 year term after BiH's would conclude).

BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, A FORMIDABLE CANDIDATE

While Poland may be viewed on the basis of current economic, population and political factors to be in a more favorable position, these factors may not always carry the day in UN voting. In some instances, perceived advantages could even impact unfavorably. Poland is a rising power on its own, and perhaps especially compared to a BiH still recovering and regrouping after a brutal conflict. Nonetheless, BiH has several advantages over Poland in the election process to the UN Security Council:

1.     As evidenced in the previous election from the "Eastern Europe Group," Croatia won over already EU

and NATO member, the Czech Republic. Many states, particularly non-aligned feel that EU and NATO states are already overrepresented on the Security Council. (Poland is probably viewed as even more aligned with the US, especially after recent "missile shield" debate, and that can lose you as many votes

as win in the UN).

2.     BiH has a cross-cultural preference, (while correctly or not Poland is viewed as homogeneous).

3.     BiH is likely to gain support from most Organization of Islamic Conference member states.

4.     Smaller states can be formidable candidates, if perceived as more focused on shared interests with

other countries rather than the bigger states consumed by self-interest in almost any issue before the

Security Council, (as let's say the US, Russia, China, France, UK). Diplomatic representatives can play a decisive role, as the United Nations is more like a global parliament.

It was under my administration as UN ambassador almost a decade ago that we launched BiH's candidacy for the UN Security Council. I indicated to them my confidence that BiH's representatives and intense legacy would have a good chance to prevail in the election.

A VISION OF A BiH PREPARED FOR GLOBAL LEADERSHIP

During our defense of BiH's citizens and rights within the United Nations framework in the early 1990's we were not always winning, but we earned a reputation as a state that was not intimidated by big powers and that would not allow silence to stand as the response of the UN regarding events in BiH. We won resolutions within the General Assembly when the UN Security powers would not act. From various UN forums to the media, we were a voice that was heard and mattered. We also understood that we had to care and be also a voice regarding other genocides and aggressions, from Rwanda to the Balkans, if for no other reason than to have greater credibility when pleading BiH's own case. Our vote and view was sought out by others.

That decade earlier, when my then deputies, Serb, Croat and Bosniak, and I decided to launch BiH's candidacy for the Security Council our greatest disadvantage to overcome was the notion that BiH, as a state that was still a subject under discussion before the UN Security Council, (and therefore should not be on the primary multilateral body addressing the issue). On the other hand, we were more confident that in a decade, when its candidacy would have become current, BiH would be a success story at peace building and reintegration. We also had confidence that in a rather short time as a member of the UN, BiH had shown leadership and diplomatic influence, at least to overcome the negative considerations to BiH's candidacy in the eyes of other states and especially their diplomats at the UN.

Unfortunately, BiH has not advanced sufficiently in terms of reintegration. The state still has far to progress in terms of maturity, integrity and the efficacy of its institutions. When we put forth BiH's candidacy a decade earlier, we also expected that BiH's membership to the UN Security Council would help promote BiH's image, economy as well as its political influence.

BiH still has not secured the election. It is possible that some might try to derail BiH's bid, although it does not have any announced competing candidate. There has been some speculation that Serbia might launch a last minute bid. Regardless, Serbia is also through Kosovo, as well as it's non-compliance with the ICTY and ICJ, an issue before the UN Security Council that should effectively disqualify it. Beyond Belgrade, other potential candidates have been whispered. However, it is not likely that another formidable candidate can effectively spoil either BiH's candidacy for 2010 or even Poland's for 2012. BiH is perceived as a preferred candidate to many and in its arrangement with Bosnia, Poland has probably secured both goodwill and the necessary margin of votes in 3 years.

Muhamed Sacirbey

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Mr. Muhamed Sacirbey holds B.A. degree in history and J. D. degree from Tulane University in New Orleans. He also holds M.B.A. degree from Columbia University. Prior to becoming Bosnia’s Foreign Minister and Ambassador to the United Nations, he practiced as an attorney in New York City and worked for several years as an investment banker. He presently writes his book “A Convenient Genocide, in a fishbowl ” and is a commentator on human rights and political issues.

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