CORBOY: ANOTHER WAR IN GEORGIA MAY BE LOOMING - May 22, 2009

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- Mrs. Ketevan Khachidze of The Georgian Times interviews Mr. Denis Corboy, the former EU Ambassador to Georgia and the Director of the Caucasus Policy Institute at the King's College, London. The material is being reprinted with the permission of The Georgian Times.

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Q: In the op-ed which you and two other former US Ambassadors to Georgia, William Courtney and Kenneth Yalowitz, published in the New York Times last week, you noted that the risk of another Russian intervention is high. Could you elaborate on this a little more?

A: Georgia could be facing the most serious crisis since its independence in the 90s. Most experts in the academic community believe that there is mounting evidence that Russia

is preparing another conflict for when it suits their agenda to

have it. We came to this conclusion after studying many signals: the Russian Army at the borders of Abkhazia and South Ossetia

is equipped with hardware suitable for a war situation, not hardware suitable for border defence.

When we look at the deployment of the Russian Black Sea fleet you will notice it is equipped with amphibious craft. You can add to this the heightened rhetoric of Russia’s Ambassador to NATO, President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, whose comments about Georgia are increasingly harsh. They have grossly exaggerated the danger to Russia of the Partnership for Peace exercises which have very small military content and have been planned for over 2 years. The elevation of this into a big issue, plus protesting against the EU’s Eastern Partnership. When all this is taken together, we can conclude that Russia may be preparing the scenario for another conflict, which will take place either in summer or later this year.

Q: But many analysts note that a war is unlikely to happen. Why would Russia start another offensive against Georgia?

A: If we look back at the war last August, from their point of view they succeeded in achieving most of their objectives and they now control Georgian territory south of the Caucasian mountains. They have not paid a high price, having seen only the suspension of operation of the Russia-NATO council and meetings with the EU and some deterioration of their foreign investment income. All in all this was not a very big price to pay for achieving what they have. However many people in Moscow think that there is unfinished business. Georgia is still aspiring to NATO membership. Saakashvili is still in place, and they have still not achieved full control of Caspian energy supplies. So this is, in my opinion, a very serious time for the security of Georgia.

Q:  Could you go into details: what could be Russia’s scenario in your opinion? What is in Russia’s mind? A full land grab, toppling Saakashvili or what?

A: I would not know how exactly it would come about. It would be very easy to create an incident at the border. The Russian troops are already there, the Black Sea fleet is off Poti. I don’t know what different scenarios they may have in mind but many of us in the academic communities believe that it is Russia’s objective to gain control of security and energy policy in what they consider their sphere of influence.

Q: Why do you expect this to happen in July? You have said that Russia would start a war whenever it fits its agenda. Why in summer then?

A: I would put this as a serious possibility, somewhere around there. They have signalled their intention to deal with Georgia, which they have demonized, and there is a constant narrative which bears the same pattern. Unless at the Obama-Medvedev meeting in Moscow in July very clear lines are drawn by the US in regard to Russia’s behaviour here, I think Georgia could be very vulnerable. The objective of most of us, as friends of Georgia in academic circles, is to try to ensure that the US reset of relations includes drawing some very clear red lines to provide sufficient security for Georgia. As you know the issues in which Russian cooperation is required are major challenges facing the world, Pakistan, Afghanistan, nuclear disarmament, Iran, the Middle East, North Korea. We must try to ensure that Georgia is clearly a part of the reset button. This is a challenge which those of us in the think tank world are going to work very hard at.

Q: Do you think that the messages that Washington has given so far have not been very clear in these terms?

A: It is difficult to judge after the Lavrov and Clinton, Medvedev and Obama meetings. Understandably Georgia would not be at the top of the agenda. But I was disappointed that it was not mentioned in a more positive way. More has to be done and this has to be a priority.

Q: Is this threat to the country sufficiently appreciated in Tbilisi?

A: I find it alarming that there appears to be little awareness of the danger. It is tragic that at this time of potential great danger Georgia cannot pull itself together to meet this challenge. Most other countries facing such a major crisis would see everybody getting together. They would bury their differences because the country is more important. Georgia cannot afford internal crisis at this particular time. It’s time for Georgian people to put a lot of extreme antagonism to one side, and I would hope that the seven areas of reforms are implemented as quickly as possible. For the outside world, we do not understand why in a country which has an elected President his removal would be a precondition of talks. That is not the way a democracy is run. If the strategy is to create violence and from violence find some way to destroy the regime… those days are over. It is the unfortunate history of Georgia that the streets have deposed the last two Presidents. Much of the international community is bewildered by the street theatre that is continuing, especially at this time of grave international danger. Sadly the internal political strife plays into Russia’s agenda and this should be realized here.

Q: You have mentioned that one of the reasons why Russia would invade Georgia is because Saakashvili is still in power. What if the opposition…

A: No, this is misinterpretation. The Russian strategy has been very clear since 2006, and it includes demonizing Saakashvili. That’s part of their agenda. However, I believe the war was inevitable and was bound to happen. Russia was intent on taking Abkhazia and South Ossetia and this was part of their plan for quite some time. On the other side the national policy of Georgia was to regain those territories by coercion. This would inevitably lead to a clash. It was just a matter of time.

Q: You’ve talked about what US President Barack Obama should do to enhance Georgia’s security. But what should Europe do? Is Europe ready to help Georgia defend itself?

A: There is no doubt about the European commitment to Georgia’s independence and security. But you have to be realistic. If there is another war in Georgia, do not expect that the whole world is going to come to your side. What we have to do is engage in preemptive diplomacy to avoid another war here. This is why the reputation of Georgia internationally is very important at this time. If the protests continue very much longer, it could look to the rest of the world like a descent into anarchy. We recognize the frustration and the discontent that exists. But I think that common sense requires a joint effort by the Government and the opposition to implement all those reforms quickly. The domestic crisis has to be dealt with in a democratic way. Once reforms are in place then this becomes a much more democratic country. The development of Georgia as a stable and prosperous democracy is its best guarantee of security.