TURKEY’S EUROPEAN DREAM – April 21, 2007

Turkey’s accession to the European Union has been a long and winding road from day one and, as the turbulent process continues eight years after being launched, it does not appear to be getting any easier. Turkey’s reluctance, to fulfill its basic obligation towards the E.U. and establish the Customs Union with all Member States has provided opposing voices with a first-class excuse to force negotiations to a virtual halt. The Europeans snubbed Turkey during the celebrations for the 50th birthday of the European Union while Abdullah Gul, Turkey’s Foreign Minister, postponed programmed talks between Turkey and the Union, claiming more pressing priorities. Turkey’s European future never looked such a distant and unlikely possibility before.

The catastrophic handling of the Cyprus affair has been cited as the main reason for the freezing of accession talks between Turkey and the European Union one too many times but it is highly doubtful that this is the only obstacle preventing Turkey from realizing its European dream.

In fact, the Customs Union issue is only the tip of an iceberg representing the general reluctance of the European people to accept a country so radically different than their own for reasons that have nothing, or little, to do with whether airplanes from Cyprus are allowed to land on Turkish soil.

European skepticism towards Turkey has much more to do with practical difficulties that could emerge should this large, predominantly Muslim, State succeed in becoming “one of us” than with anything else.

The primary arguments against Turkey’s entry into the European Union are of geographical nature. It is argued, maybe not without merit, that Turkey is not a European country to begin with. Only 3% of Turkey’s territory is considered European ground and its capital, Ankara, lies deep within Asia. That means that, should Turkey join the E.U., the Union’s borders would expand out of control, reaching Middle Eastern nations such as Syria, Iran, and Iraq – an overwhelming prospect for the average European.

The country’s frail economy combined with its considerable size and its population of 73 million today – potentially 82 to 85 million inhabitants within fifteen years – still generates considerable concern, in spite of the impressive economic growth that has been achieved by the sheer determination of the present government. Although successful economic policy adopted by the generally pro-European leading party, AKP (Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi – “Justice and Development Party”) has led to an impressive growth rate, the current GNP per capita is still much lower than in all European countries. This realization leads to fears that Europe may not only be required to fund underdeveloped Turkey, but also that it will be the unhappy recipient of a huge wave of Turkish economic immigrants searching for a better future in mainland Europe. It is therefore no wonder that Germany and Austria, two of the countries reacting strongly to Turkey’s admission to the European Union, are countries that already have a large number of Turkish immigrants.

Religious and ethnic discrimination, continuous interference of the military in politics and democracy, acrimonious relations with its neighbors and the poor observance of human rights in Turkey have also been a strong weapon in the hands of dissenting voices. One look at the high profile cases such as those against Noble Prize winner Orhan Pamuk, who spoke against the inhuman treatment of Kurds, and Professor Elif Shafak, whose book “The Bastard of Istanbul” referred to the Armenian genocide, provides strong arguments to supporters of claims that freedom of speech in Turkey is nonexistent as the both writers were criminally charged under the controversial Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code for “insulting Turkishness”. Nobody can deny that conscious efforts are being made towards a democratic and civilized penal system, yet accusations of torture, ill-treatment of prisoners, issues of gender equality and violations of human rights continue to pour in.

Still, the gravest problem of Turkish prospective E.U. membership seems to be unrelated to such important causes as the protection and observance of fundamental human rights. Europe rather appears to be far more interested in geopolitics than in other aspects. Over the past years Europe has expanded considerably. Twelve new states have joined within last three years, each creating a new challenge for the already overburdened European bureaucracy, making the European decision-making mechanism less effective, more rigid, complicated and ultimately time consuming. A further wave of expansion can wreak havoc within a system that is already burdened beyond its means. However, the major source of worry among Europeans is Turkey’s large political power once she is in the E.U. Its population of almost 73 million inhabitants will eventually be translated, should Turkey be awarded full membership status, to the second largest number of representatives in the European Parliament, with the very real potential of eventually surpassing that of Germany. That would in turn mean drastic alterations, not only to the Parliament but to the very core of the European Union. Turkey effectively gaining control of the entire European Union’s decision making process is a frightening prospect for current European politicians.

This sentiment is also being influenced by a number of other factors such as the negative portrayal of Muslims in Western media, what generates fears and contributes to the creation of political theories of impending disaster. For example, many take seriously Samuel P. Huntington’s warnings of an inevitable clash of civilizations between radically different Muslim societies, such as Turkey’s, and the predominantly Christian Europe. It is therefore no wonder that the admission of Turkey to the European Union has attracted so much controversy.

Nevertheless, while it remains a fact that the public opinion in both the E.U. and Turkey is against this strategical match, it is really worth to consider the arguments suggesting that Europe could actually benefit greatly from accepting Turkey into its family.

Nobody can deny the efforts made by the AKP towards improving the economical stability of the country and towards the creation of modern and well functioning democracy – the process originally started by Attaturk’s regime. Steps like the abolition of the death penalty, the crackdown of torture and the improvement of the situation of ethnical minorities, such as the Kurds, have gradually met with encouragement by the E.U. The fact that Turkey is a Muslim country should not be considered an obstacle on its European path. The very fact that Turkey is so different than the rest of the European states could be a positive catalyst, helping Europe with the creation of a multicultural society, which she claims to envision in her fledgling constitution. After all, there is no good reason why Europe should be exclusively a “club” of Christian states. With Turkey’s large and growing population, the possibilities that would open to the European businesses appear to be endless. Projections showed that in 2004-2005 the economic growth rate in Turkey was above 7%, far higher than the average growth in the E.U. member states. It is not unlikely that in a few years Turkish economy may overtake those of Poland and Romania. Turkey’s young and vibrant population could act as a balance for the continuingly ageing European population. More significantly still, Turkey could be an invaluable ally in the Middle East as well as an excellent role model of democracy, stability and development for Arab countries. Its diplomatic value by virtue of both its strategic position and its religion should not be underestimated. Turkey could become a much needed bridge between Western and Islamic civilizations and could act as a powerful mediator between the West and the Arab world in this troubled era when Islamic fundamentalism is quickly becoming a pressing concern for the Western countries.

One thing is certain, Turkey will continue her political and economical growth whether accepted into the E.U. or not; but if the door to the membership in the E.U. closes Turkey will be forced to seek alternative political routes to pursue, something that might not produce desirable results for Europe. For instance, Turkey might not feel obligated to take into account European and international pressure to better protect ethnical minorities’ rights such as the rights of Kurds, who would be the first ones most likely to suffer from the consequences of a potential breakdown. Also the Cyprus’s problem with its division into Greek and Turkish separate parts would not be positively finalized, as all political incentives to resolve the issue would disappear.

In diplomacy in general sometimes what matters the most is not the essence itself of any given action but the symbolism associated with it. This seems to be the case with the lengthy and complicated journey of Turkey towards the E.U. membership. Nevertheless, both sides participating in this endless bargaining are fully aware that the desired fruit is not yet ripe and ready to be harvested.

The European Union itself is going through a deep existential crisis prompted by the failure of the much-celebrated European Constitution. There is still a lot of work to be done to integrate closer before any further enlargement is even considered (a conclusion also evident in the Elmar Brok’s Report concerning Enlargement, March 2006). In any case, the timing seems to be bad. Expecting the reassessment of the Turkish membership issue just before the French presidential elections, caused the issue to be used by all three main French contenders to boost their political chances.

In Turkey, the public opinion is gradually losing its initial enthusiasm for E.U. membership as the prospect is being continuously postponed by the European politicians. More and more people in Turkey believe that perhaps Europe is expecting too much and that Turkey’s concessions are not really worth the price. While the Helsinki European Council in 1999 officially announced Turkey’s candidacy to be of equal status as the candidacies of all other aspiring states the reality is emphatically different. Ankara has also recently entered into a critical pre-election period with too much to lose and virtually nothing to gain from compromise. The entire issue is understandably put on hold.

The accession of Turkey to the European Union is proving to be a tough challenge for all parties involved. At this crucial time nobody can predict what the future holds for Turkey. One thing is certain, both Turkey and the European Union still have a lot of work to do before the accession is even possible. Turkey needs to comprehend that in order to be accepted into the E.U. she needs to make the necessary adjustments and fulfill the membership preconditions, while Europe needs to resolve the internal issues that have been haunting the E.U. in order to be able to successfully incorporate Turkey. On a positive note however, both sides appear to be fully aware of the benefits they may gain and are doing their best to keep the bridge intact, waiting for just the right moment to begin crossing it.

Faye Karavasili

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Author of the article holds LL.B. and LL.M. degrees in law from the University of Sussex, United Kingdom. She is an attorney practicing in Thessaloniki, Greece, and in Brussels, Belgium. She specializes in European Union law and criminal litigation.

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