FRANCE vs. IRAN – October 25, 2007

Since the election of Nicolas Sarkozy in May 2007, France’s foreign policy has made an apparent shift from the foreign policy led by his predecessors. This shift is well evidenced by the latest comments made by Bernard Kouchner, French foreign affairs minister (the founder of Doctors without Borders), who stated that the world should prepare for a war with Iran in the event it refuses to stop the nuclear program and uranium enrichment.

Current French foreign policy visibly differs from former President Chirac’s refusal concerning France’s involvement in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, as well as from the policies led since the election of Charles de Gaulle at the end of World War II. The Gaullist foreign policy doctrine emphasizes the independence of France at the international scene, often resulting in France’s defiance of other national powers, as evidenced by France’s frequent opposition to the United States, or multinational powers (De Gaulle believed the United Nations to be useless and famously referred to it as “le machin” or “the thing”). De Gaulle’s successors have generally stuck to this policy even though they have gradually shown greater inclination to rely on the United Nations in solving international problems.

France’s recent shift has several explanations. First, Nicolas Sarkozy was elected overwhelmingly based, in part, on his promise to break with the previous governments’ domestic and foreign policies. At the Ambassadors’ conference in Paris last August [1] , Nicolas Sarkozy warned that the Iranian crisis “is no doubt the most serious weighing on the international order today”. Such statements are in sharp contrast with President Chirac’s infamous “gaffe” of last January, when he said that Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would not be “very dangerous”. President Sarkozy and his government have also come to understand that there is a commonality of interests between France and the United States and that France does not have to be alone in confronting the Iranian crisis. Indeed, France’s open alignment with the United States in their refusal to exclude military options against Iran has even prompted some international observers to forecast “the end of anti-Americanism” in Europe. [2]

However, this should not be interpreted as a full shift in France’s foreign policy. Despite repeated threats against Iran, it is difficult to imagine that France would become involved in a military action in the region. The war in Iraq remains a vivid example that the unilateral use of force in the Middle East can have disastrous consequences. No doubt, France will draw conclusions from U.S.’s unsuccessful intervention in Iraq. Further, the guerrilla-type of war which currently confronts the U.S. troops, is likely to remind France of the Algerian war and, to a lesser extent, of the Vietnam war – the two bitter defeats of France that  continue to influence public opinion on military interventions.

Understanding this, Nicolas Sarkozy explicitly dismissed the possibility of a war against Iran at the annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly last month. He said that the Iranian crisis requires “arsenal of sanctions […], negotiations, discussions and firmness. And I don’t want to hear anything else that would not contribute usefully to the discussion today.”

These latest statements result in a foreign policy which is not significantly remote from recent interpretations of the Gaullist approach marked by a preference for multilateral negotiations under the banner of the United Nations as opposed to unilateral use of force. However, considering Sarkozy’s willingness to push reforms within France and his desire to strengthen France’s position at the international scene, his stronger rhetoric may simply evolve into France’s more pragmatic approach to international relations.

Sarkozy recognizes that the United States, despite its declared intention to keep a military option on the table, would be unwilling to conduct another intervention in the Middle East, especially considering its limited military resources in the region and growing domestic criticism within the U.S. Additionally, the growing Muslim population within France, presently reported to number approximately 4 million people[3] , makes it difficult, if not impossible, to win domestic support for a potential war against Iran. Although publicly stating otherwise, both, the United States and France, realize that military intervention may be considered only as a last possible resort. President Sarkozy may be making strong verbal statements against Iran, perhaps in order to highlight the significance of the problem, however he also understands that neither the international community nor the United States will have any real desire or ability to engage in another military conflict in the Middle East at this time.

Thus, in the months to come, Nicolas Sarkozy will need to balance delicately between the Gaullist tradition and the necessities and requirements of the international “war on terror”, which calls for more aggressive approach in foreign policy issues. For better or worse, France is now co-leading the international coalition against Iran to stop that country’s nuclear program – a position which finally gives France, the international status of which De Gaulle only dreamed. 

Elodie Vandenhende

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Author of the article holds master of laws degree in French law from the University of Paris – X Nanterre and LL.M. degree in U.S. law from American University in Washington, D.C.

Footnotes:

1. http://www.ambafrance-uk.org/President-Sarkozy-s-speech.html

2. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20546425/site/newsweek/

3. This figure was produced by the Haut Conseil à l’intégration (the French integration committee).  However, France law prohibits caucuses about religion or ethnicity, therefore this number is an estimate only.