NUCLEAR BOMBS IN AMERICAN CITIES – December 29, 2007

Terrorist attacks of September 11 proved that Western societies are very vulnerable to damage and harm inflicted by radical organizations. While all-out war with countries like Russia and China is highly unlikely, the danger posed by terrorist groups is real and imminent. One of the disadvantages concerning the war on terror is that you do not see it unfolding in front of your eyes. The enemy is invisible for an ordinary citizen, although it is an ordinary citizen, not the army or military structure, who is primarily targeted by the terrorists. In all of that, perhaps there is nothing scarier than a nuclear bomb detonated by terrorists in a major U.S. city. The repercussions would be enormous and not only for America but for the whole world.

WHAT EXPERTS SAY?

In September 2007, the Washington-based organization, Nuclear Threat Initiative, published its annual report “Securing the bomb 2007" [1] in which it estimates the dangers of nuclear terrorism. According to the report, a terrorist nuclear attack is presently a very real threat. More ominously, the probability that terrorists would be able to acquire and use a nuclear bomb can never be reduced to zero. There are, however, things which could be done to reduce such probability to a small fraction of

its current level.

The following facts are highlighted: (a) terrorist groups are actively seeking stolen nuclear weapons and materials and actively seeking to recruit nuclear expertise, (b) once they have enough of the needed fissile material in hand - some 50 kilograms (110 pounds) of highly enriched uranium (HEU) for the simplest “gun-type” device they could plausibly build and detonate a crude nuclear weapon, (c) there are tens of thousands of nuclear weapons and weapons-usable nuclear material to make hundreds of thousands more around the world, (d) a lot of nuclear stockpiles around the globe have appalling security and accounting arrangements, (e) as a result a substantial number of incidents of actual theft of weapons-usable material has already occurred, (f) smuggling of nuclear weapons or materials into the U.S. is possible and very hard to detect.

The reality of the danger is perhaps best evidenced by statements of the most wanted terrorist in the world - Osama bin Laden. In his 1999 interview for ABC News he said that ”[...] to seek to possess the weapons [of mass destruction] that could counter those of the infidels is a religious duty. If I have indeed acquired these weapons, then this is an obligation I carried out and I thank God for enabling us to do that. And if I seek to acquire these weapons I am carrying out a duty. [...] but how we could use these weapons if we possess them is up to us”. [2]

IS IT TOO LATE TO STOP NUCLEAR TERRORISM?

It might be. Unfortunately, it is possible that the terrorists are already in possession of weapons-usable nuclear material, which they could have acquired on the black market. For example, on January 25, 2007, a Georgia’s court sentenced a man named Oleg Khinsagov, to eight and a half years in prison, for smuggling around 100 grams of highly enriched uranium. [3] One year earlier, Khinsagov was trying to sell his HEU and claimed that he was able to provide more than 3 kilograms of the substance. He was apprehended while attempting to sell said material to a Muslim organization, which was offering $1 million for acquiring the sample. As the later forensic analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy showed, the material offered by Khinsagov was a U-235 with purity of 89.451% enriched uranium, meaning it was a weapon-usable material. Fortunately he was stopped and apprehended, however we cannot tell if his was only an isolated incident and whether similar transactions have already taken place elsewhere.

As the above story clearly shows, the black market for nuclear material already exists and is beyond the control of any authorities or intelligence agencies. According to IAEA Illicit Trafficking Database (ITDB), a total of 252 incidents were reported to the ITDB in 2006, of which 150 occurred in 2006 and the remaining 102 had taken place mainly in 2005. [4] Of the 150 incidents that occurred in 2006, fourteen involved unauthorized possession and related criminal activities. As many as 86 incidents in 2006 involved thefts, loses or misrouting of nuclear or other radioactive material. As IAEA informs, between 1993 and 2006 there were fifteen confirmed incidents, which involved unauthorized possession of HEU and plutonium, while some of these incidents involved attempts to sell these materials and their smuggling across the borders. [5] However a question arises, how accurate those statistics are and if they truly reflect a full range of the problem? Unfortunately, we may be dealing with an issue similar to that of drug trafficking. Every year the authorities uncover hundreds of thousands of illegal smuggling of drugs, however still it is only a tip of an iceberg and tons of narcotics reach their destination in Western countries anyway.

OTHER POSSIBLE OPTIONS

As the NTI’s report says, the world stockpiles of separated plutonium and HEU, the essential ingredients of nuclear weapons, amount to well over 2,300 tons, what is enough to manufacture more than 200,000 weapons. As many as 128 research nuclear reactors around the globe or associated with them facilities, possess at their sites at least 20 kilograms of HEU, which is enough to make a bomb. As a consequence, the option that terrorists would acquire weapons-usable material on the black market is not the only existing possibility.

They can as well get into possession of fissile material by conducting a military attack for example on one of the convoys transporting either nuclear weapons or fissile material. In the United States, only the Department of Energy carries out around 100 such transports a year, while there are also 100 commercial plutonium shipments most of which contain over 100 kilograms of weapons-usable plutonium in a single shipment. The adequacy of security of these shipments is a controversy and as a matter of fact it is impossible or almost impossible to provide the same level of security for shipments as is provided at closed nuclear facilities.

The good news is that despite the common opinion, it may be reasonably concluded (although not completely ruled out) that states possessing nuclear weapons would not transfer them to terrorist groups. Firstly, because states usually do not have control over such groups and therefore would endanger themselves by supplying them with weapons of mass destruction (they would expose themselves to the risk of being blackmailed by those organizations). Secondly, because it would be an act of power sharing, which is highly unlikely to take place voluntarily. Thirdly, because any direct link between nuclear terrorism and a sponsor state would provoke retaliatory nuclear strike against such a state by a country which would suffer from a terrorist nuclear attack.

OPEN BORDERS

Once the terrorists acquire nuclear weapons or fissile material, either by being supplied by a sponsor state, by purchasing it on the black market or through a theft, stopping them from smuggling it into the United States appears almost impossible. America has been unable to stop illegal immigrants from crossing U.S. borders undetected or to stop the influx of illegal drugs. Moreover, the amount of fissile material needed to build a nuclear weapon is relatively small making it even harder to intercept. For the simplest gun-type bomb, terrorists would need 50 kilograms of HEU, which can be easily stored in a suitcase. To manufacture a bomb similar to the one which was dropped on Nagasaki, terrorist would need to smuggle 6 kilograms of plutonium, which is about the size of a soda can.

Perhaps, to realize how relatively easy it would be for the terrorists to smuggle weapons of mass destruction or fissile material into the U.S., one should keep in mind that in 2003 an investigative reporter from ABC News, Brian Ross, as a part of a journalistic experiment, successfully smuggled depleted uranium from Jakarta, Indonesia, to Los Angeles. [6]

IMAGINE MANHATTAN

If any place in America is going to be hit by a terrorist nuclear attack, there are pretty big chances that it will be New York City again. New York is world’s financial capital with the most influential stock market on the globe (NYSE), therefore it is a very attractive target. Also it is a place where the United Nations are headquartered. Additionally it is a very densely populated area.

A small nuclear bomb, comparable to that dropped on Hiroshima, if detonated in midtown Manhattan on a typical workday, would instantly kill half a million of people. Only the damage in midtown Manhattan would amount to around $1 trillion. [7] Hundreds of thousands of people would need to be evacuated and would require immediate medical assistance. The city would be unable to function. No country in the world is presently prepared for such a scenario. The United States was unable to timely and rapidly respond to a much smaller disaster caused by Hurricane Katrina, therefore one may assume that it would be similarly unable to successfully deal with a humanitarian catastrophe caused by a nuclear attack. People in other big cities would start to panic and to abandon them fearing another terrorists attack coming. U.S. economy would be seriously damaged, if not completely devastated, within a matter of days, perhaps weeks. Globalization would spread economic crisis immediately around the entire globe.

Former U.N. Secretary General, Kofi Annan, estimated that global effects of a nuclear terrorist attack would additionally push “tens of millions of people into dire poverty” creating “a second death toll throughout the developing world”. [8]

CAN WE DO SOMETHING?

There are experts, who believe that nuclear terrorism can be prevented. However, there are also pundits, who believe that such an attack on U.S. soil is inevitable and is only a matter of time. The foremost duty to deal with the problem is upon the governments, intelligence community, military, law enforcement, diplomats and politicians.

However, what can an ordinary citizen do is to spread the awareness of the problem. There are elections held in America every two years. The next are in 2008 and a new president is going to be elected. As a citizen and a voter you should ask your candidate a question, what does he or she plan to do to prevent terrorists from acquiring nuclear weapons or fissile material and to keep American cities safe from nuclear terrorism?

Sebastian Aulich

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Author of the article holds Master of Laws degree in EU and Polish law from Lazarski School of Commerce and Law in Warsaw, Poland.

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United Nations' fight against nuclear terrorism - June 6, 2006

The threat of nuclear terrorism - May 22, 2006