THE CONTINUING DEMOCRATIC RACE - March 10, 2008
  

The latest major round of US presidential primaries, four states voting on 4 March, including the major states of Ohio and Texas, gave both parties a chance to resolve – or at least begin to resolve – their presidential nomination races. The Republican outcome was as expected: John McCain clinched the GOP nomination by winning a majority of total delegates to the Republican convention. On the Democratic side no conclusive result was expected. What was expected was that Barack Obama would confirm his momentum by winning at least one of the day's big states. Had he done so, pressure on Hillary Clinton to bow out of the race would have become intense. Instead he fell short, and the Democratic race remains as unsettled as ever.

On the Republican side, continuing conservative disaffection for John McCain could not overcome the weight of a nominating process designed to produce a nominee quickly by awarding huge blocks of delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Ohio and Texas between them gave McCain enough delegates to clinch the nomination, and Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee conceded the next day. President Bush also gave McCain his formal endorsement the next day, beginning the process of Republicans closing ranks around a nominee whom many of them still distrust.

      
The Democratic nomination rules, which award delegates proportionally, were never intended to yield a swift result, and there was no expectation that Ohio and Texas would be decisive in a mathematical sense. Nevertheless the general presumption going into last Tuesday was that it would mark the beginning of the end of the Democratic race. It failed to do even that, instead leaving the Democratic nomination fight as unsettled as ever.

        
To understand what was expected to happen on the Democratic side on 4 March, and didn't, a brief recap of February is in order. On Super Tuesday, 5 February, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama battled each other to a draw in a semi-national contest of over twenty primaries and caucuses. In the couple of weeks that followed, however, Obama won fourteen primaries or caucuses in a row, culminating in Wisconsin, giving him a substantial lead in delegates and – more important – a new surge of momentum. A consensus formed around two propositions: first, that Hillary had to win both of the two big states at stake on 4 March, Ohio and Texas, in order to remain a credible contender for the nomination; and second, that Obama would probably win at least one of them.

       
How such a consensus forms is mysterious. This one was powerfully reinforced when Bill Clinton acknowledged it as a standard, but it probably caught on because of its inherent logic. Obama was (and remains) the frontrunner, but although he had won most state contests, Hillary won in most of the big states, and usually carried a majority of the Democratic working class base, other than African Americans. To establish himself as presumptive nominee, Obama had to show that he could break through; to keep in the race, Hillary needed to show that she could hold her support.

        
In the couple of weeks before the primaries, the polls in Texas and Ohio were moving strongly Obama's way. He appeared to have caught up in Texas and possibly even in Ohio. In the last days before the voting, however, Obama's momentum stalled, on the campaign trail and in the voting. Hillary's campaign – now very nearly in the position of challenger – launched tough new criticisms of Obama, especially on national security, while the Obama campaign was caught off balance by new scrutiny.
  

In one murky episode, leaked by Canadian government sources, Obama appeared to give assurances that his criticisms of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) were mere campaign rhetoric. NAFTA is a touchy issue in US politics, symbol of all the fears associated with globalization - particularly in the declining industrial Midwest, typified by Ohio. However welcome such assurances might be in Ottawa, they were unwelcome in Ohio, and moreover the story made Obama look like a typical politician, just what he claimed not to be.

          
Obama ended up losing Ohio by a 10-point margin. More important he lost in Texas as well, at least in the popular vote. Texas awards delegates in a byzantine process involving both a primary election and caucuses held the same night, the latter awarding a third of the state's delegates. Obama won the Texas caucus, and came out about even in delegates there. The popular vote, however, was the symbolic benchmark. By winning it, even narrowly, Hillary has kept herself in the race, and robbed Obama of the crucial momentum he has enjoyed with few exceptions since Iowa at the start of January.

 
On 4 March Obama won only the small New England state of Vermont (Hillary won nearby Rhode Island). On 8 March he won another caucus, in Wyoming, and on 11 March is expected to easily win a primary in Mississippi. These victories – both in states certain to go Republican in the fall – have not restored Obama's momentum, nor the previously growing presumption that he would be the nominee. Obama suffered a further campaign embarrassment when a top foreign policy advisor, Samantha Power, carelessly called Hillary a "monster," and his campaign was forced to sack her.

          
Obama remains favored, heavily in the betting markets, and the 4 March races did little to cut into his elected delegate lead. Indeed, Obama is likely to retain this lead even if Hillary wins most of the upcoming contests – notably Pennsylvania, on 22 April, another big, diverse industrial state of the sort that Hillary has generally won so far. Nevertheless, a lead in elected delegates does not ensure Obama the nomination.

           
In strictly formal terms, the nomination will be decided by the so-called superdelegates, Democratic officeholders and officials who are delegates ex officio, not bound by their states' primary or caucus results. Were other things equal, the superdelegates would be unlikely to contravene the will of the Democratic electorate, as expressed by the delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses. (Indeed, had Obama won Texas, it probably would have triggered a stampede of superdelegates into the Obama camp.) Other things, however, are not equal. Because of the complex way that delegates are apportioned, and because Obama has done especially well in caucuses with relatively low turnout, the overall popular vote is closer than the delegate tally, and Hillary might well end the primary season with more popular votes, though Obama has more elected delegates.

 
Moreover, the shadow of Michigan and Florida hangs over delegate tallies. Both states held early primaries in violation of the party's sanctioned schedule, and the Democratic National Committee ruled that their delegates cannot be seated. All candidates but Hillary had removed their names from the Michigan ballot (though not required to do so), but all appeared on the Florida ballot. Turnout was heavy in a state where counting votes is of great symbolic importance to Democrats, and that could be a crucial battleground in the fall – and Hillary won by a wide margin. There is now talk of holding a do-over primary at least in Florida, though how it would be organized and financed remains uncertain.

              
It is more likely than not, therefore, that when the primary season wraps up with Puerto Rico in June, the results will be ambiguous, offering no clear signal to the superdelegates. The Obama campaign will pressure them to ratify a lead in elected delegates, however narrow; the Hillary campaign will pressure them to consider other factors. Long before the convention, however, there will be strong pressure from both Democratic party leaders and the party grass roots to somehow bring the nomination fight to a conclusion – and especially to avoid a prolonged mutual bloodletting that can only benefit McCain and the Republicans.

             
Pennsylvania thus looms large as the next symbolic battleground. Should Obama win the big-state victory that eluded him in Ohio and Texas, the superdelegates may tip his way. If he falls short again, however, they may begin drifting toward Hillary. Her ace in the hole is the prospect of a Hillary-Obama ticket, regarded by both party leaders and many grassroots Democrats (even some Obama supporters) as a dream ticket. Talk of such a ticket re-emerged after Hillary's 4 March wins, surely promoted by her campaign, in spite of all efforts by the Obama campaign to tamp it down.

             
However much Democrats want to settle their race, however, it is not likely to be settled soon – certainly not before Pennsylvania, probably not before the end of the primary season, and perhaps not until the August national convention. Until then we will have a peculiar three-cornered contest. McCain, as Republican nominee presumptive, will be making his case against both Democrats, while they will both be claiming to be the stronger candidate to run against him, making their pitch simultaneously to the remaining primary voters and to the superdelegates watching nervously from the sidelines.

Rick Robinson

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Author of the article holds B.A. degree in Economics from the University of California in Los Angeles (UCLA) and M.A. degree in English from California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo, California . Mr. Robinson worked as a county-level campaigner in Dukakis (1988) and Clinton (1992) presidential campaigns. He presently works as a journalist and political commentator.

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