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HASTA LA VISTA, HILLARY - May 8, 2008

Barack Obama in North Carolina Democratic race slowly begins to be more transparent with one clear leader. Barack Obama pretty much terminated Hillary Clinton last Tuesday in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries

(to deep dissatisfaction of my lovely wife - a devout Hillary’s

supporter). Those pundits, who predicted a tie in North Carolina

because of the Wright-gate, proved themselves a little bit naive.

Eventually, why would black voters in North Carolina, who for

the first time in history were given a real opportunity to choose

a black presidential nominee, decide not to vote for Obama?

(Although it is inaccurate to call Obama merely a black candidate,

because as a matter of fact, he is partly black, after dad, and

partly white, after mom - and we don’t know yet, which DNA

part is the dominating one).

WRIGHT OR WRONG?

It was pretty much obvious to me that the Rev. Wright “scandal” would not hurt Obama too much. Firstly, because it was taken out of proportion and the issue was completely exhausted by the media. People must have been changing channels whenever they heard a word “wright”, “right”, or “reverend” (for example my wife was doing so, although she also has this habit of changing channels whenever she hears a word “Obama”).

Secondly, because it was illogical to believe that Rev. Wright’s distorted opinions may affect people’s perception of Obama. One doesn’t go to a church to worship a reverend or a priest but because one feels a personal connection with God. If that was the issue then, for example, the Catholic Church in the U.S. would have stopped to exist some time ago. It is less evil to say something ridiculous about U.S. government’s involvement in HIV/AIDS or 9/11 (as Rev. Wright did), than for instance to sexually molest children (as the Catholic priests did in the U.S., for what the Pope recently personally apologized). So if the Catholic Church, and the Catholics themselves, weren’t destroyed by the wrongdoings of a number of priests, then why would Obama be seriously damaged by Rev. Wright’s political misjudgments?

Thirdly, this election is far from being a contest of personalities. Candidates’ characters won’t matter this year. I disagree with Dick Morris, who claims that this question about Obama will keep coming back in the following months whether his knowledge of Rev. Wright’s political beliefs was pre-existing. Fortunately or not, the most important questions, which people are going to ask themselves in this election will be: how much gas costs the next year, if they still have their jobs and if the healthcare is affordable to them. In this context, I don’t even think that McCain’s respected service to this country may be of significant advantage to him over Obama. Overall, voters usually give the most consideration to the economic agendas (“the economy, stupid!” - as Bill Clinton would say).

NO EXIT STRATEGY

And Hillary? Regrettably, she appears to be a candidate without an exit strategy. Apparently, what Mrs. Clinton claimed that Bush did wrong in Iraq, she is now repeating in her own presidential bid. It is pretty much the same kind of mentality. George W. Bush still believes he can win the war in Iraq, while Hillary Clinton still believes she can win the Democratic nomination. John McCain must be happy, I guess, because at least until the Democratic National Convention he won’t be the only one trying to destroy Obama’s reputation.

TEFLON JOHN

But McCain has enough problems of his own as well. Yesterday, some of the evangelical leaders called for the movement to pull out of the party politics. Well, if they do, then McCain is in trouble. Unfortunately, Teflon John (as some liberal media call him) does not spark deep enthusiasm of the evangelicals (who constitute approximately one fourth of the voters in the U.S.). Additionally, said appeal for withdrawal may be interpreted as a warning if not an indirect request to nominate Mike Huckabee, an evangelical preacher, as McCain’s running mate. However, Huckabee doesn’t have enough money (or fund-raising potential) to contribute to the campaign, and additionally McCain may need to consider choosing a member of some ethnical minority as his running mate in order to balance Obama’s appeal as the first color presidential candidate. In any way, McCain may need to gamble.

Sebastian Aulich

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Author of the article holds Master of Laws degree in EU and Polish law from Lazarski School of Commerce and Law in Warsaw, Poland.

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Obama and America's Original Sin - April 7, 2008

Will Florida and Michigan Determine Next U.S. President? - March 12, 2008

The Countinuing Democratic Race - March 10, 2008

Foreman vs. Ali 2 - February 15, 2008

Super Tuesday Truth - February 8, 2008

Into the Stretch: Landscape before Feb. 5 - February 2, 2008

Turnaround! - The New Hampshire Primary Results - January 10, 2008

Out of the Gate: Obama makes history - January 5, 2008