McCAIN AND THE BUSH FATIGUE - May 24, 2008
 
 
For the third time in recent months Republicans suffered defeat in a congressional district that traditionally leans toward the GOP. The latest occurred earlier this month when Democrat Travis Childers was elected in a Mississippi seat held by Republicans since 1994. While two similar losses were experienced in Illinois and Louisiana earlier this year, the victory of Childers is more significant.
 
The National Republican Congressional Committee had used this race as a

testing ground for its unfolding messaging in the fall. It spent millions on

advertisements attempting to link Childers to Senator Obama and even

his controversial former pastor Jeremiah Wright. The party even flew Vice

President Cheney and Laura Bush into the district election week to help

build Republican support, to no avail.
 
This loss came as a stunning reminder for congressional Republicans of the

challenges faced heading into November due to a tarnished Republican

brand caused by the “Bush Fatigue.” The failing economy, staggering deficit,

and stagnant Iraq strategy have soured even party loyalists. Childers’ win

demonstrated that traditional Republican party-line messaging is untenable

in open and competitive races.
 
Contrary to interpretations that these losses represent a pattern that

should make Senator McCain apprehensive for his prospects in the general election, the underlying trend here plays to the Senator’s strengths. Senator McCain’s reputation of not adhering to orthodox Republican thinking will undoubtedly make it more difficult to be tied to President Bush and the national Republican Party. McCain with his broad appeal to the middle of the electorate might be the only Republican capable of beating the Democrats this fall.
 
The fact that McCain was able to secure the Republican nomination early on has afforded him the ability to solidify the fractured conservative base and retool his messaging towards a general election campaign. Over the course of the last few months voters have witnessed this transition of McCain moving more towards the center which is in keeping with his public persona image.
 
His speeches have shifted from talk of the greatness of Reagan, the need to limit government, and faith in free market to remembrances of the Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on the fortieth anniversary of his assassination, global warming, and affordable healthcare. While Democrats continue to fight amongst themselves, McCain has visited inner-city and poor rural areas, places Republicans usually write off as too Democratic to waste precious campaign time in.
 
But McCain is unlike most Republicans. This is a man who was held captive for over five years and tortured at the hands of the North Vietnamese and survived. By all accounts he is stoically patriotic, tough as nails, and as Arizonans say “cunning as a hawk.” Supplement this with his unparalleled foreign policy experience as the Ranking Member of the Armed Services Committee and Democrats would be wise to defend their expected strongholds.
 
Throughout his public service, McCain has chartered a well-publicized independent course on high profile issues that often ran directly counter to President Bush and his fellow Republicans. Some of these include:
 
  - the bipartisan McCain-Feingold Campaign Reform Act of 2002 which banned the unregulated, unlimited

     “soft money” contributions from corporations, unions and wealthy individuals to national political parties

     and federal candidates.
  - the bipartisan Gang of 14 in the Senate who agreed on the confirmation of three conservative judges to

     avoid curtailing the right of the minority to filibuster.
  - the desire to close Guantanamo Bay and ban the torture of individuals in U.S. custody because its

     existence is damaging U.S. soft power by eroding its moral authority abroad.
  - is opposition to the 2005 Cheney energy bill (like Clinton, but not Obama), which had enormous 

     giveaways to the oil and gas industries.
 
McCain’s reputation for periodically spurning conservative Republican philosophies has earned the Senator the respect of the American media. This relationship between the two has been criticized by progressives and conservatives alike without effect. Unlike any other Republican, Senator McCain can and will use the media to his advantage in the months leading up to the general election.
 
While Senator McCain distances himself from Bush and sidesteps party-line messaging in favor of substantive issue discussions, he must also be cognizant that the Democratic nominee will attempt to reinforce the public’s perceptions of traditional Republicans. Senators Clinton and Obama have provided ample evidence of this fact throughout their respective campaigns by reiterating the notion that a vote for McCain is a vote for a third Bush term. This theme has been underscored and references to Senator McCain’s support for President Bush’s on high-profile and controversial issues including the policy in Iraq, privatizing Social Security, and making the Bush tax cuts permanent.
  
Many Democrats have viewed the results from the Childers election as tangible evidence that the Republican ticket is doomed to fail in November. While congressional Republicans panic and amend their strategies, Senator McCain remains on course. From the shadows of the Mississippi race to the ongoing Democratic fight he has learned that in this election issues matter more than party.
 
For the first time in over a decade Americans are actively engaged in the election process, informed on the issues, and eager for change. Democrats should not prematurely conclude that this translates to a new party in power. Rather, Senator McCain’s ability to transcend traditional party labeling and affiliation enables him to talk on substantive issues that are no longer owned by a particular party. Americans are tired of party rhetoric. They want the truth.  

Stephanie Kimball

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Author of the article holds B.A. degree in Political Science from the University of California Davis. For the last 9 years she has been working as a Legislative Director for several Republican Assembly members in the State of California.
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