THE FUTURE OF CUBA - June 12, 2008

There are many characteristics in Cuba that have not changed over a few generations. Some of the constants that have always existed are ever present humidity (mixed with smell of fresh tobacco in the air), the Casas de Trova in every major neighbourhood, and the sea water which is rolling in tune with clouds that bring to the island shore every type of imaginable rain. But for the current generation of Cubans, and for the foreigners as well, there has been one more constant pertaining to Cuba’s image and that is the one of a Castro named Fidel, who was leading the country for the past 48 years.

After Fidel essentially retired last year and his brother, Raul, took over as Cuba’s top administrator, a lot has been debated and discussed in many countries about how to approach Cuba under the new Castro. While little has changed in Cuba itself after Raul gained power, there has been a push from the outside to change world’s approach to Cuba and try to influence it internally.

The narrative of Fidel Castro in Cuban politics was always a constant one; even pictured at the street walls to keep reminding the Cubans to fight for every corner and neighbourhood in pursuit of their Revolution. Often accompanied by the face of Che himself, the words: “Venceremos-En Cada Barrio Revolucion” reminded the Cubans of the rise of Castro’s ideology. This has been true for the most part of the country’s history since the Cuban Revolution, but in practice it usually meant fighting in wars in Africa, Central and South America, opposing the U.S. at every possible occasion or securing the economic stability mainly thanks to the foreign aid. In essence, the Cubans have always fought for every street, but this fight was mostly launched outside of Cuba. Notably what affected the Cubans the most was their continuing economic dependency on other countries and the mounting political pressure from the outside. It is doubtful whether this kind of survival strategy could change under Raul Castro’s rule, but it is certain that Cuba’s neighbours will do everything possible to influence changes in Cuba, if that would be for better or worse.

Many discussions about Cuba and the departure of Fidel have taken place in foreign media, featuring Cuban experts, human rights activists and Cuban expatriates. While all of the presented perspectives are important and necessary for Cuba’s future, there has been little discussion on how Cuba has developed internally, while being affected externally. Even Obama and McCain addressed those issues publicly. The reality of the new world order, filled with many mid-sized powers and the United States, which ends the Bush era with open trade policy toward other Communist states, the presidential candidates had to voice their positions on potential policy changes in respect to Cuba from the perspective of the next four to eight years. With Obama advocating opening toward Cuba and McCain advocating severing relations, Castro’s support for a particular candidate could create a contentious issue and a heated debate in the presidential campaign.

The last notable debate regarding the U.S. sanctions against Cuba occurred during the Clinton Administration’s rule (although the embargo has been imposed immediately following the Cuban Revolution). A reiteration of the existing policy came with the passing of the Helms-Burton Act in 1996. Helms-Burton Act penalized foreign companies operating in the U.S. for doing business with Cuba (but in order not to alienate friendly nations there was no real enforcement of that law as Europeans, Canadians, Latin Americans, and others often go to Cuba for vacation, commerce and other unmentionable luxury activities every year). From the 1960's to the late 1980's, Cuba was benefiting from favourable economic arrangements with other Communist countries around the world, and was trading sugar and other natural resources for grain, oil, industrial products and other economic and military aid required to support Castro’s regime. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union and many Eastern Bloc communist systems, the economic crisis broke out in the 1990s, forcing Cuba to re-position itself in order to survive. Support from Venezuela eventually came via oil and funds. Other states such as Nicaragua and Bolivia also provided political and economic support to Cuba, a country which they regarded as their ideological role model. However despite the new support coming from its neighbours, Cuba still felt urged to open itself up to more funds from the outside.

In the 1990's Fidel Castro allowed foreign tourists into Cuba, who brought in cash and other aid, which until present day constitutes a major factor in Cuban economy. It produced some positive and negative effect for Cuba’s one party rule system and civil rights. Since the 1990's, the EU has outspent the U.S. in providing aid and funding to many Latin American countries and recently has limited sanctions against Cuba after they were introduced in 2003. Although more open relations with the EU increase pressure on Cuba to abide by human rights standards and recognize freedom of speech, what is a pre-condition of closer relations with the EU; still many of foreign tourists visiting the country engage in illegal sex trade and other forbidden activities, what has done little for the dignity of the Cuban people. Many people in Cuba’s barrios would often complain about these activities and even Fidel referred to Cuba as a country, which has the most educated prostitutes in the world, bluntly summarizing the state of affairs of Cuba’s interdependency with the rest of the world at any cost. Despite these shortcomings, the EU has sought to positively engage Cuba while criticizing its dictatorship and persecution of free speech and human rights. According to Spiegel International’s writer, Ralf Beste, (his “EU Seeks Deal with Cuba” article of February 14, 2008), Cuban officials have often in the past perceived the role of the EU, even though it tried to engage Cuba in some political dialogue, as passively supporting the U.S. policy of sanctions. This perception may not change until the U.S. seeks to engage with Raul Castro. Fortunately, there actually may be such a possibility as the Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barrack Obama, announced in May 2008 that as a president he would start political dialogue with Cuba.

Presidential campaigning in the U.S. is likely to have great effect on Cuba. The diplomatic course adopted by the next President will determine whether Cuba and the U.S. would start dialogue to help Cuba to reintegrate into international community and global economy. Presently, the U.S. sees no evil in doing business with communist China despite China’s reported abuses of human rights. At the same time similar human rights abuses in Cuba have been the rationale behind the imposition of rigid sanctions against Castro’s regime. On the other hand, China has always played important role in supporting and supplying Cuba with many goods, from plastic products to military equipment. There have been recent discussions between those two countries to expand the scope of China-Cuba relationship and exploit the opportunity that the United States is presently focussed on the Middle Eastern issues and on combatting its economy crisis. While the EU often tries to influence Cuba passively, China is determined to use Cuba as its hub of trade with Latin American and the Caribbean countries.

The future of Cuba with the Castros still in the picture will likely continue. As always, Castro will try to handle internal needs of the Cubans in conjunction with outside pressures in order to maintain the current status quo by securing foreign support for the ailing economy and preserving Cuba’s political system. If the United States is to engage Cuba in political dialogue and solidify relationships in the future, Obama or McCain will have to work on building ties with Raul Castro. According to Parag Khanna, the influence of China and the EU will be a major factor in determining how Cuba develops in the future. It will pressure the U.S. to act robustly and quickly to maintain its position in the new world order with many effective and competitive global actors in the play. Obama recently suggested to start open talks with Raul, knowing that the policy of engagement is necessary for any kind of change in Cuba and to keep Latin American countries in the U.S. sphere of influence. While there is no doubt that McCain is also aware of this fact, the future of Cuba will be determined not only by the Castros themselves but also by those who decide to engage with them first.

 Rich Basas

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Author of the article holds M.A. degree in Latin American Political Economy and a Masters law degree from the University of London. He is currently an editor of Foreign Policy Association’s Latin America Blog.
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