BALKANIZATION OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY - June 14, 2008

After a historic primary race, Senator Hillary Clinton on Saturday withdrew as a presidential contender and threw her support behind presumptive nominee Barrack Obama. Her campaign highlighted what was to many women a ground-breaking achievement, one that garnered her 18 million votes and brought her closer than any previous woman to winning the nomination. The prolonged primary battle coupled with Clinton’s ultimate defeat has bred disdain amongst many of her supporters who are now threatening to vote for Senator John McCain.

These disenchanted voters seem for the moment to be everywhere. Emily List activists to white blue-collar workers to Latinos - legions of Clinton supporters are pledging to not only refrain from backing Obama, but to cross party lines and vote for McCain. According to a May 30-June 3 CBS News poll, 22 percent of Clinton supporters say they prefer John McCain to Obama. Additionally, 7 percent claim they're undecided, and 8 percent say they won't vote at all. This news underscores the potential for a fractured Democratic coalition heading into November.

Senator McCain is losing no time in moving to attract these aggravated voters to his own camp. During a town hall in Nashville this week McCain gave tribute to his colleague from New York. He praised her campaign - commenting that he admired and respected her as an individual and a pioneer who has broken through the glass ceiling of the office of President. These words of approval have been repeated throughout McCain’s campaign in part to emphasize with Clinton voters that he has a high regard for their candidate.

Many Clinton voters view Obama as the rookie who thwarted their more seasoned candidate’s election. If McCain successfully gives homage to Hillary, this – coupled with his experience – may create an opening for him amongst her demographic base. During McCain’s primary candidacy, he was repeatedly attacked for claiming Senator Clinton as a good friend whom he respects – a damaging sentiment at the time that has since morphed into a positive. On June 6th, CBS news reported that 12 percent of all Democrats currently support McCain, an increase from the 8 percent that deserted John Kerry for George Bush in 2004.

Democrat leaders are rightfully concerned. While Clinton ultimately did her duty for the party and asked her supporters to unite behind Senator Obama, it may be too little too late. The success of Obama’s presidential bid is predicated on a cohesive Democrat party structure. Republican strategists are examining whether the balkanization of the Democrat coalition is temporary or long-term and believe the answer will become apparent in the next few weeks. If Clinton supporters refuse to walk precincts, make calls, or financially bolster Obama - the junior senator from Illinois will face a daunting task in the general election.

Senator McCain has to either persuade Clinton voters to line up behind him or rebuff Obama’s attempts to court them. This strategy has played out in venues like the Ninth Ward in New Orleans where McCain addressed blue-collar workers and decried the government’s handling of hurricane Katrina, and in Oregon where he stressed to women voters a mandatory limit on greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change for future generations.

Pollsters throughout America have predicted that if women think the country would be safer with McCain over Obama by 10 points on election day, McCain will win. Count on Republicans repeating Obama’s statement that Iran is not “much of a threat to the United States.” Anticipate a McCain pitch to "security moms," combined with an appeal about "elitists in the Democratic party" to women and the working class in the coming months. Clinton hammered these themes of national security and the ability to connect with the average voter during the primary.

Democrats should not assume that women who backed Hillary will vote for Obama simply because of his good record on issues including abortion and birth control. A Planned Parenthood poll of women voters in 16 battleground states earlier this year showed 49 percent of McCain's supporters called themselves pro-choice and said they support Roe vs. Wade.

Likewise, Democrats should not take the Latino vote for granted. McCain who has a traditional posture in support of tolerance for diversity, could win a significant portion of Clinton’s Hispanic vote, especially in some pivotal election states. Many Democrats have mistakenly ignored the fact that many Hispanics in this country are union workers whose wages have drastically plunged due to competition with illegal immigrants.

Republicans believe Senator Obama has roped himself into a stranglehold on the issue of trade and jobs in America – mostly due to pressure from labor groups. Senator Obama’s promise to incorporate stronger labor and environmental provisions into NAFTA may be the deciding factor for many Latino voters. Count on McCain asserting that a re-opening of NAFTA will allow Mexico to demand action by the United States on immigration reform, U.S. farm subsidies, and an unfulfilled promise to allow Mexican truck companies to deliver goods throughout the nation. These actions would translate into job losses for America’s middle-class – something Obama cannot defend.

In contrast, Senator McCain has defended NAFTA as good for U.S. economic growth and promised to negotiate more trade accords. He has committed to giving union workers whose jobs have been lost due to globalization access to retraining programs that focus on growth industries like technology. All of this may look more appealing to a Latino voter who competes daily with illegal immigrants.

  
To most Americans, it is apparent that a case of “buyer’s remorse” has developed within the Democrat Party which McCain will undoubtedly capitalize on. Over the upcoming months both McCain and Obama will appeal to Clinton’s supporters as they both gravitate further towards the electorate’s center. While Democratic pollsters and commentators have foreshadowed a sweep in November due to a disenfranchised populous, Republicans are now focused on historic precedent. Americans traditionally like their government balanced, and voters may be looking for a check on a Democratic Congress.

Stephanie Kimball

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Author of the article holds B.A. degree in Political Science from the University of California Davis. For the last 9 years she has been working as a Legislative Director for several Republican Assembly members in the State of California.
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