NORTH KOREAN STRATEGY OF SURVIVAL - June 22, 2006  

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, more commonly referred to as North Korea, was founded on September 9, 1948, as a communist state in which the highest political power was vested in hands of a small group of decision makers and its leader. Soon after its inception, North Korea adopted a policy of ‘self-reliance’, which later resulted in a total alienation and isolation of this country by international community. The political course taken by North Korea proved to be a failure and caused severe economical problems, including widespread pauperization of the society, permanent shortages of food, energy and other basic products. North Korean Gross Domestic Product in Purchasing Power Parity, estimated by independent outside experts, equaled in 2005 only $40 billion, while the number of the whole population was over 23 million people. It made the index of GDP per capita to equal merely $1.700. In comparison the same index in Mexico was $10.000 for a population of over 107 million people.

North Korea being unable of reforming its economy and modernizing agriculture, started to strive for closer trade relationship with rich, capitalist countries and their financial aid. Simultaneously the communist regime started to increase military spending and began development of a nuclear program.

Endeavors to break international isolation proved successful to some extent, especially in respect to European states and the EU. Opportunistically for North Korea, in the late 90’s the European Union decided to develop its own Asian policy as a counterweight to the U.S. influence in the region. For that reason Europe together with several Asian states established the Asia – Europe Meeting (ASEM) as a political forum aiming at strengthening cooperation between the two regions. During the third ASEM Summit held in Seoul, South Korea, members of the forum adopted a joint declaration regarding relations with DPRK. The declaration stated that ASEM and its individual partners would endeavor to strengthen efforts to improve relationships with North Korea through dialogue and economic links. The adoption of this strategy resulted in establishing by North Korea diplomatic relations with Italy (2000), Great Britain (2000), the Netherlands (2001), Germany (2001), Greece (2001) and Spain (2001). Subsequently the European Commission exchanged notes with DPRK considering establishment of bilateral diplomatic relations on May 14, 2001.

Furthermore, the European countries decided to intensify trade relations and financial help for the communist state. In the period of 1999-2004, the economic aid for North Korea reached an amount of €280 million. DPRK started to trade directly with some European states and many of its debts were prolonged. Additionally, the EU extended its membership in the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO) for another five years and decided to enlarge its financial contribution in the Organization from €15 to €20 million. In exchange for the help, the UE expected, rather idealistically, that the communist regime would continue dialogue with South Korea on peace and stability, refrain from proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and respect international human rights.

In the meantime the United States was conducting its own, independent policy.  On October 21, 1994, the government signed the Agreement Framework with North Korea, requiring that the communist state froze its nuclear program and permitted monitoring by International Atomic Energy Agency. In exchange, the U.S. promised to provide DPRK with heating oil and create a consortium that would finance and construct two light-water reactors. The conclusion of the Agreement resulted in almost $1 billion in aid delivered by Americans to North Korea by the year of 2000.

The first outcome of the EU and the U.S. policies of providing extensive help to DPRK proved to be questionable. In 1998, the North Korean regime launched a multi-stage missile test over Japan and was still developing its missile system and nuclear program. As a matter of fact, the international aid, which was supplied to DPRK over several years, contributed to the survival of the communist regime and enabled it to focus on expanding its military power. According to the “Report to the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives” prepared by the North Korea Advisory Group in November 1999 the “North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction pose a major threat to the United States and its allies”, which “has advanced considerably over the past five years”.

The expected shift in American policy toward DPRK made by the Bush administration did not bring any positive changes as well. The six-party negotiations that initiated in 2003 between the United States, North Korea, China, South Korea, Japan and Russia only prolonged the uncertainty over DPRK nuclear program and gave the communist regime additional time for militarization.

At the beginning of 2005, North Korea declared that it had manufactured atom weapons for self-defense and would continue to strengthen its nuclear program. Threateningly, the regime suspended its participation in six-part talks for an indefinite period of time. In June, 2006, North Korea started preparations for launching a test of a Taepodong-2 missile, which is believed to have a range of 9.300 miles and being able to reach a territory of the United States.  

Graham Allison, a Dean of Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, expressed in his book “Nuclear Terrorism” an opinion that “North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons and a nuclear weapons production line promises to become the greatest failure in the nearly 230-year history of American foreign policy”. Allowing North Korea to possess nuclear weapons might be a sparkle starting chain proliferation of such weapons and high militarization of the whole Asian region.

The policy toward North Korea requires substantial changes and most of all closer cooperation of the main world and regional powers. Unfortunately it seems that so far both the EU and the U.S. do not have appropriate strategy to resolve the crisis and eliminate the threat posed by the unpredictable communist regime.

Sebastian Aulich

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